Technology advances, but human nature stays the same. It’s cliched by now, but it’s never been more true.
We all remember Gordon Gekko, cinema’s epic representation of the 1980s Wall Street titan. Gekko is a slimy master of the universe, an unscrupulous speculator with morals as flexible as the tape he trades. “Greed…is good.”
Less remembered is the the 90s equivalent of Wall Street, the movie Boiler Room. The protagonist signs on at a brokerage house (J.T. Marlin) alongside a bunch of cocky, smooth-talking Turks who seem to be making a lot more money than they deserve by pushing mysterious investments hard-sale style through aggressive cold calling and practiced coercion. It’s a standard pump-and-dump scheme. The salesmen recruit the capital of their unsuspecting clients and deploy the money into the stocks of bogus companies, thereby ratcheting up the share price. The large stakeholders – the top brass at J.T. Marlin and their pals – sell at the top of the run-up right before the shares swoon.
The pump and dump is a tired classic in the annals of market manipulation, and it’s little different from petty thievery. You’re taking the money from the fools you convince to buy. This happens all the time. In some cases, it’s egregious fraud, like the scheme in Boiler Room. In other cases, it’s almost morally defensible. Take Jonathan Lebed, a kid who, at 15 years old, became the first minor to ever face proceedings for stock-market fraud. Michael Lewis wrote a great piece, from which I quote:
[Lebed] had used the Internet to promote stocks from his bedroom in the northern New Jersey suburb of Cedar Grove. Armed only with accounts at A.O.L. and E*Trade, the kid had bought stock and then, ‘using multiple fictitious names,’ posted hundreds of messages on Yahoo Finance message boards recommending that stock to others. He had done this 11 times between September 1999 and February 2000, the S.E.C. said, each time triggering chaos in the stock market. The average daily trading volume of the small companies he dealt in was about 60,000 shares; on the days he posted his messages, volume soared to more than a million shares. More to the point, he had made money…The kid’s take from six months of trading had been nearly $800,000.
While it seems like the kid should be reprimanded, Lebed comes to his own defense quite well:
People who trade stocks, trade based on what they feel will move and they can trade for profit. Nobody makes investment decisions based on reading financial filings. Whether a company is making millions or losing millions, it has no impact on the price of the stock. Whether it is analysts, brokers, advisors, Internet traders, or the companies, everybody is manipulating the market. If it wasn’t for everybody manipulating the market, there wouldn’t be a stock market at all.
Very. Scary. Stuff. My friend Boris may have said it best: “I don’t even know what it means when a stock goes up anymore.”
I just finished a summer gig working for StockTwits, a start-up, Twitter-based, social-media client built to facilitate stock and financial chatter and distribute finance-related content. The question StockTwits users answer is “What are you trading?” in 140 characters. Simply, it’s a service to talk about and talk up your positions. Twitter will probably be defunct before the bureaucrats at the S.E.C. get their pants on, but the new technology could facilitate exactly what Lebed did on message boards and, more generally, what J.T. Marlin does in Boiler Room.
A recent feud on the interweb between Mahalo founder Jason Calcanis and StockTwits head Howard Lindzon touched on the subject. Calcanis said it feels like tweeting trades on StockTwits is pumping positions. Lindzon lashed back on his blog, saying: “I look forward to the time when a tweet from someone on Stocktwits can move a stock. They will have earned the respect of enough legitimate people to be followed.”
I agree and disagree. Pumpers do have to earn respect to be effective (or else be really clever). But since when does earning respect from others and the following of the masses absolve one from moral lapse? Sometimes it doesn’t. If I’m a pro at technical analysis and I make money through trades demonstrated in real time, it’s conceivable that I could garner a substantial following on Twitter, whereupon I might notice that, gosh, when I buy the stock of a small capitalization company and tweet my trade to my following, I get a bit of an extra boost. Volume up. Price up. Sell. Profit. Money.
Money perverts and corrupts. Win or lose, rich or poor, money shapes us even as we earn it and spend it and lose it. Respect from others can be abused for personal gain. At StockTwits, we’ve been banning and blocking scores of users who seem to be doing exactly this. There are the telltale signs: repeated focus on micro-cap companies or lightly traded stocks; repetitive, unnecessary enthusiasm for a position; and clear use of dual accounts. But there are also the covert tactics. Some users create many fictitious names (like Lebed did) and claim to enter positions, increasing the interest in the pump-and-dump darling of the man behind the avatar. Twitter is viral, so it’s not hard to be relentlessly self-promotional without being discovered until it’s too late. I’ve been sniffing these scammers out all summer, and they only get smarter.
Many times, the pump and dump works. And often, it’s a fraud being perpetrated by a talented trader who has earned the respect and following of legitimate people but then steps over to the dark side of easy money. Who needs technical analysis when you can just take money from the dopes who follow you in?
Other times it’s unintentional. Brian Shannon from Alphatrends is a great trader and a technical analysis pro, and he certainly has the capacity to enact a pump-and-dump scheme at will for his own enrichment. He has nearly 9,000 followers on Twitter, and he runs an awesome premium trading product. I’ve noticed that when Brian enters a position and tweets his entry, people follow him in blindly. He’s so good that great traders like Doug from Wall Street Media swear by the follow-Brian-blindly gambit. (Doug is also one of Covestor’s seminal crew of investment managers.)
I’ve seen this on the StockTwits stream and on my platform concurrently. On June 11th, Brian tweeted an entry – “bot $PLLL 222” – and I thought to myself, hell, if Brian is in maybe I should get in also. But it was too late. I noticed three or four other user’s tweets after Brian’s saying things like “long $PLLL 2.25” and “bought $PLLL 2.27” – and this was all happening in real time, and it was backed up by the tape. One of Brian’s followers lamented that he didn’t enter at $2.25 when he had the chance — so sudden was the spike, he lost the opportunity. The volume in Parallel Petroleum Corporation surged and the share price jumped. From the numbers, it appeared that everyone who was buying shares in this tiny, rinky dink energy company was on StockTwits. Seven minutes after his initial post, Brian tweeted that he sold part of $PLLL at 2.29. Not a bad way to make a few bucks. 3% profit. You do the math.
This is a memorable case I refer to for its demonstrative effect, not to criticize Brian. I’m familiar with Brian’s trading and I use his premium service, and I’m convinced that his morals are beyond reproach and his intent is pure. I am sure the PLLL trade was one he pursued for other reasons. It was a speculative play that he didn’t even mention to his premium subscribers. Also, at day’s end, he was still holding a position in the stock. Moreover, Brian focuses almost exclusively on heavily-traded stocks of mid- and large-cap companies. His premium members are rarely (if ever) given an entry instruction on a micro-cap stock that a bunch of rogue, tweet-tastic traders could move. (Save the heavy lifting for the Goldman machines, kiddos.)
Brian’s innocence notwithstanding, it’s easy to see how a person, having built up a following and demonstrated speculative skill, could engineer a quick, easy pump-and-dump scheme for a great profit.
I suspect that the more savvy and sinister pumpers utilize many different Twitter accounts and build followings through the most covert methods. They claim to trade larger cap stocks too, as if to take the dogs off the scent. They don’t pump and dump every time. They show their followers a profit, sometimes, before sticking them really deep on a centi-million-dollar market-cap crap-trap. They work in groups. Bulls On Wall Street is a lame StockTwits alternative that was just recently launched by a cadre of pennystock pumping, speculator-deviants whom StockTwits banned for their market-milking machinations.
So Jason Calcanis may have a point. In some cases, tweeting a trade is pumping (both intentional and unintentional) and in other cases it’s clearly not. When Howard mentions that he’s bought a bucketful of Wal-Mart shares, that’s not pumping. When the crew from Bulls on Wall Street put their stamp on a stock, cavet emptor people. The internet is supposed to make everything transparent. But the “transparency” afforded by emerging technology can be harnessed for evil ends. Transparency can muddy as well as enlighten.
It’s fundamentally about human nature. In a way, we’re all pumpers. We’re always grinding, always chasing that trade. Always on the lookout for The. Big. Score. We’re all looking out for our own self-interest. We want money and we want it right now. We want in, baby. Let’s trade.
The introductory scene from Boiler Room is instructive here. The sentiment shared is one attractive to me and many others:
The $87 Million lottery winner, that kid actor that just made 20 million on his last movie, that internet stock that shot through the roof, you could have made millions if you had just gotten in early, and that’s exactly what I wanted to do: get in. I didn’t want to be an innovator any more. I just wanted to make the quick and easy buck. I just wanted in. The Notorious BIG said it best: ‘Either you’re slingin’ crack-rock, or you’ve got a wicked jump-shot.’ Nobody wants to work for it anymore. There’s no honor in taking that after school job at Mickey Dee’s…honor’s in the dollar, kid. So I went the white boy way of slinging crack-rock: I became a stock broker.
We just want in. But don’t forget, how you get there matters. A man is only as good as his last trade. You’re good or bad, honest or dishonest, noble or ignoble. Are you willing to trade character for cash, morals for money, principles for power? Those are the most important trades or non-trades we make in this life. Believe that.
Money, Maximization, and The Mature Life
November 15, 2009 by kileyaustinyoung
[A "first person" piece I wrote for a writing course, amended from an old blog entry.]
We’ve all heard it, the standard money-won’t-buy-you-happiness argument—that amassing wealth only begets a desire for more (the “hedonic treadmill” concept); that working too hard and too long creates stress and stifles relationships; and that doing what you love is most important. The grey-haired gremlins coo with either smug satisfaction or uncomfortable regret, “Do what you love, kid.”
As a college senior choosing a career, I’m increasingly frustrated by the aching naiveté of the whole do-what-you-love-and-be-happy line of reasoning. If somebody were willing to pay me to snowboard down the back slopes of the Tetons, embark on a safari in the Great Rift Valley, or guide a speedboat through Amazonian rainforests, I’d be doing those things already. I would love to skip out of work and sip Johnny Blue at the corner bar, or tear across the country in a beat up Subaru—blasting music, windows down, feet out the window, arm casually resting on the cinnamon-tan inner thigh of an impossibly attractive brunette in a baby blue miniskirt. Yes, then I’d get a cozy cabin in the Adirondacks, read tattered paperback classics and wax poetic in my leather-bound diary about Dickens and Faulkner. If there is a company out there writing checks for the things I love, please forward my résumé.
The fact is, much of what I love—and most of what I want to spend my time doing—can only be had by doing other, less glamorous things. I know I’m not alone. Millions of people sit in air-conditioned skyscrapers all day, tirelessly churning out the motions of a mechanized existence, dreaming of the things they aren’t able to do because they are trapped by their total lack of short-term cash flow. The truth is, money is important—many of the things that contribute joy to existence, and many of the things which detract from it, actually can be measured in dollars and cents. Cold, hard currency is all too often, and way more frequently than the bleeding-heart poor wish or care to admit, the means able to provide the ends we desire.
I’m not saying we’re all going to be cubicle-dwelling accountants, or that we’re all going to dislike our jobs, or that we’re all going to be suppressed forever by four-figure checking accounts. Conversely, I am not saying that the solution to all of our problems is winning the lottery. Indeed, some of us, many of us, will find the fulfillment we are looking for in a family or an art form or a career. Some of us will start booming businesses that incite our inner passions. Maybe you find yourself three thousand miles away, taking notes for a National Geographic feature on the tragedy of the Burmese clergy.
As economists never tire of reminding us, life is about trade-offs—and the work and money versus love and happiness tug of war is perhaps the toughest trade-off decision we are forced to make. The trouble is, as humans, we are miserably bad at getting the trade-offs right. To our own detriment, we are usually just plain wrong when trying to predict what decisions will lead to joy. We spend too much time in painful labor for the money we end up spending on things we don’t need. What we think will make us happy, in the end, just won’t. Most of us end up working too hard for too long, spending too much on too little. I’m in that camp.
It is an enduring human pull to attempt what economists call maximization—that is, we constantly, and at times frenetically, seek out the best options in life. In virtually every psychological study, researchers have found that people who try to maximize are far more miserable than people who are willing to make do. We are all counterfactual historians, men and women who obsessively imagine different and better outcomes for ourselves.
I am a clear maximizer. I fluctuate madly—from day to day, from week to week—between different goals and plans and ideas. Some days, I feel as if I would be content to settle into a ninety-hour-per-week job in law or finance. Other days, I want to take a long shot and try to be that reporter in Burma, money be damned. Some weeks, I try to hit the kill switch on that lightning rod of adrenaline, unplug the live wire of naked impulse that lurks within, and settle down into the more predictable tedium of mature life. Other weeks, I want to foster it, nourish it, feast rapturously on the idosyncratic thoughts and difficult passions that speed and instability and risk inspire.
There’s no clear solution. What to do with our lives, and how to lead them, is the monster trade-off, the most important decision we make. Maybe we shouldn’t let a trifle like happiness muck it up.
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